Posted by: anothercountry | August 2, 2007

Sector Analysis – Review

Previously :-
Sector 3 Month Price Change SS Sector SS Cycle
Mining 16.13% Basic Materials Late Expansion
Mobile Telecoms 9.99% Capital Goods Early Expansion
Chemicals 9.25% Basic Materials Late Expansion
Construction & Materials 8.85% Capital Goods Early/Middle Expansion
Oil Equipment & Services 8.51% Energy Late Expansion
Oil & gas Producers 7.78% Energy Late Expansion
Tech & Hardware Equipment 6.48% Technology Early Expansion
Tobacco 5.54% Consumer Staples Late Expansion
Leisure Goods 5.17% Consumer Cycles Late Contraction
Industrial Engineering 4.03% Capital Goods Early/Middle Expansion

Now:-
Mining – – 17.12% – +1.1%
Chemicals – up 1 – 12.46% – +2.95%
Construction & Materials – up – 1 10.35% +2.5%
Oil Equipment & Services – up 1 – 8.04% +.47%
Oil & gas Producers – up 1 – 7.52% +0.26%
Mobile Telecoms – Down 4 - 4.55% -5.46%
Industrial Engineering – Up 3 – 4.44%
Tobacco – – 2.77% – -2.68%
Leisure Goods – – 1.6% – -3.57%
Equity Investment Instruments - up 1/new to top 10 – 0.97%

Tech & Hardware Equipment has dropped out of the top 10

So there has been a definite strengthening of late expansion and one middle expansion sectors. Early expansion sectors have dropped substantially.

Now I need re-adjust my watchlist…….

…….which isn’t altered as there were no quality companies in the data miner from either Equity Investment Instruments or Tech and Hardware Equipment. Something is wrong here I feel.

Hypothesis: A problem with this approach –
sectors may be the top 10 but for some their growth rate is declining. Would it be better to also select from sectors outwith the top 10 which are seeing their 3 month growth rate increasing Not simply growth but expanding growth.

However on a 3 month calculation there are only 11 sectors advancing. Another 28 are declining. For 4 months 16 sectors and 6 months 23 sectors. So there can only be 11 sectors in positive growth (advancing or declining growth) if we are looking at a 3 month view. The only option would be to change the time frame.

I will keep this idea on the backburner. I’d rather revisit it in normalised market conditions.


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